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How Do Returns from Crypto Compare to Stocks and Bonds?
March 4, 2025 by Mike McDonald, Ph.D
The crypto market recently reached a historic milestone when Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark for the first time. This achievement reignited discussions about how investors should view Bitcoin and other cryptos relative to traditional asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. In this blog, we’ll dive into questions surrounding Bitcoin and its place in the investment world.
Are cryptos influenced by the same forces that move equities and fixed income, or are they in a category of their own?
Bitcoin’s meteoric rise is in stark contrast to the generally slower and steadier returns of stocks and bonds. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has delivered unparalleled gains, transforming it into one of the best-performing assets of its time. However, this performance has come with a price—extreme volatility. Unlike stocks or bonds, where daily price movements are often moderate, Bitcoin’s price can swing by double-digit percentages within hours. For some investors, this volatility is an acceptable trade-off for the potential of extraordinary returns. For others, it raises questions about the asset’s long-term viability as a store of value.
One of the most debated aspects of Bitcoin is its correlation to other assets. In its early days, Bitcoin was heralded as a portfolio diversifier with minimal correlation to equities and fixed income. More recently, however, it has shown increasing ties to the behavior of high-growth tech stocks. This trend suggests that Bitcoin’s performance may now be influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, including interest rates and investor appetite for risk. For example, in periods of rising interest rates, investors often pull back from speculative assets, which could explain some of Bitcoin’s price movements.
The narrative that Bitcoin serves as “digital gold” has also gained traction, particularly in times of inflation. Some proponents argue that Bitcoin, with its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, offers a hedge against the eroding value of fiat currencies. Yet the data tells a more nuanced story. Bitcoin’s performance during inflationary periods has been inconsistent, and its extreme price swings make it a less reliable hedge compared to traditional inflation-protected securities or even physical gold.
Can Bitcoin sustain this level? What drives its returns?
Regulatory developments further complicate Bitcoin’s outlook. While the growing interest from institutional investors and the potential for Bitcoin ETFs signal increasing mainstream acceptance, regulatory uncertainty remains a major hurdle. Governments worldwide are grappling with how to oversee the cryptocurrency market, and their decisions could either bolster Bitcoin’s legitimacy or stifle its growth. Clearer rules could encourage more institutional participation, helping stabilize prices. On the other hand, overly strict regulations could deter innovation and push activity to less regulated markets.
Whether Bitcoin can sustain its $100,000 level depends on how these factors converge. If institutional adoption continues to rise and macroeconomic conditions stabilize, Bitcoin may find firmer footing. However, its price could also retreat if speculation and exuberance outweigh the underlying drivers of value. For investors, the challenge lies in balancing optimism about Bitcoin’s potential with the realities of its volatility and unpredictability.
As cryptos continue to evolve, their place in investment portfolios remains fluid. Bitcoin’s unprecedented gains and growing adoption suggest it is here to stay, but its path forward is far from certain. For those willing to navigate its risks, Bitcoin offers a unique opportunity to participate in a transformative asset class—one that operates at the intersection of innovation, speculation and the future of finance.
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Written by Mike McDonald, Ph.D
SS&C Learning Institute, Industry Expert